UAE Braces for Hotter, Wetter Weather as El Niño Strengthens
Forecast Overview
The National Centre of Meteorology warns that the UAE could experience temperatures and rainfall above seasonal averages in the coming months as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens.
El Niño Conditions
According to the centre’s latest seasonal climate outlook, there is a 96 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will persist from November 2026 through March 2027. The outlook notes that the developing pattern could influence weather across the country, potentially bringing higher temperatures and greater rainfall than usual.
The forecast period runs from November 2026 to March 2027, with the effects expected to begin affecting weather patterns in January. Current climate indicators show significant El Niño activity in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have risen considerably.
Temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific have reached 2.3 °C above the long‑term average, indicating strong warming. The report adds that the warming intensified during October and November 2026, with anomalies approaching 3 °C in some projections, suggesting the possibility of a strong El Niño event.
Expected Impacts and Uncertainties
El Niño is a climate phenomenon linked to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can disrupt atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns in various parts of the world.
The National Centre of Meteorology says the phenomenon could lead to above‑average temperatures and rainfall in the UAE, especially towards the latter part of the forecast period, provided suitable atmospheric conditions develop.
However, the outlook does not guarantee heavy rainfall or flooding. The intensity and geographical distribution of any rain will depend on regional weather systems and prevailing atmospheric conditions.
Transition from La Niña
The latest projections follow a period of La Niña conditions, characterised by cooler‑than‑average sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific. The centre’s assessment indicates a transition towards El Niño, with the phenomenon expected to dominate the coming months.
The seasonal outlook highlights the potential for changing weather patterns across the UAE as the country moves through the winter months and into early spring.
