Why the UAE’s October Heat Refuses to Break – and When Cooler Days Will Finally Come
October is typically the month when the UAE begins to ease out of its scorching summer, but this year the expected cooldown has failed to materialise. Residents across the country are still relying on air conditioning day and night, and the persistent warmth has become a common topic in offices, schools and family chat groups. The heat is not imagined: recent maximum temperatures have ranged between 37°C and 43°C, with some areas recording levels 4°C above the seasonal norm. For reference, the UAE’s average daily temperature for October stands at 29.7°C, according to the latest monthly summary from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
Record warmth linked to El Niño and broader climate factors
Inland areas have borne the brunt of the heat. On Saturday, the mercury hit 41.6°C in Sweihan even as rain fell elsewhere. The NCM had flagged the warm spell early in the month, forecasting that temperatures would remain high, especially inland, with maximums expected to range from 39°C to 44°C. Coastal and northern regions have been milder but still warm, with forecasts last week of 35°C in Ajman and 34°C in Fujairah.
Much attention has turned to El Niño. The NCM has issued a climate update on the phenomenon, which has been forecast to be the strongest on record. Instead of the usual October drop into comfortable autumn weather, El Niño is trapping a blanket of high pressure over the Arabian Peninsula, pushing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
Scientists have added a note of caution, saying El Niño’s impact on UAE and Gulf temperatures was “relatively weak” and pointing out that background climate warming, Gulf and Arabian Sea temperatures, and regional circulation will be at least as important. In other words, El Niño is part of the story, but not all of it.
Humidity and unusual rain events
Humidity has compounded the discomfort. Moisture carried inland from the Arabian Gulf, combined with clear skies, light winds and falling overnight temperatures, creates the conditions for high humidity, according to the NCM. The centre lists the month’s average maximum relative humidity at about 78 per cent, which explains the damp, sticky mornings and patches of fog many drivers have encountered.
The heat has been accompanied by an unusual feature: rain. For more than a week, towering clouds have built up over the east of the country most afternoons, bringing downpours and hail to mountain and inland areas.
On Thursday, 15 October, heavy rain and hail fell over parts of Sharjah, with intense showers in Al Dhaid, Washah and Mleiha. The NCM issued a flash flood alert from 2pm to 7pm over some mountain areas. A day later, storms moved across Al Ain, Hatta, Kalba and Ras Al Khaimah, and Al Aamerah recorded heavy rainfall accompanied by hail, with a local weather station measuring 7.4 millimetres of rain.
The unsettled weather returned on Monday. Hail fell on Margham in Dubai, while rain was reported in Al Ajili and on Khor Fakkan Road, and hail was also seen in parts of Fujairah including Masafi. The NCM issued an alert over strong winds expected to reach speeds of up to 50kph in some coastal and inland areas, lifting dust and reducing visibility. Abu Dhabi Police have urged motorists to exercise caution and comply with changing speed limits displayed on electronic road signs.
Forecast for the coming week
More of the same is on the way. The UAE could experience five consecutive days of rainfall in some areas from Sunday, 18 October, to Thursday, 22 October, with winds reaching 50 km/h and early morning fog or mist, according to the NCM. The centre’s online weather map shows that Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah and Al Ain are set to be hit by heavy rain until Wednesday. Clouds are expected to form in the east and spread into some inland and western areas during the afternoon, bringing possible rainfall.
Seasonal outlook and advice
There is some comfort in the calendar. Temperatures typically decline more noticeably during the second half of the month, and the country is now entering Al Wasm, a season beginning in mid-October traditionally associated with milder temperatures and increased chances of rainfall.
The wetter pattern may also persist. October and November are expected to see the peak of the El Niño cycle, with higher than usual rainfall also expected, including severe bouts that could raise the risk of flooding, although this is not guaranteed. The NCM projects a 96 per cent probability that these potentially volatile conditions will continue through to March 2027.
For now, residents are advised to follow NCM alerts, stay away from wadis during rain and take extra care on the roads when clouds roll in. The cooler days are coming, but they are taking a little longer than usual this year.
